Food Costs Are Rising: What Restaurants Can Do About It

If your food costs feel like they only move one way, the data agrees. This article summarises what two 2026 industry sources report, then sets out the levers a restaurant can pull, in an order that protects quality and guests. Dollar examples are illustrative; the surveys below are cited and should be read as what those operators reported.

What the 2026 data shows

From the National Restaurant Association's March 2026 report:

• About 82% of operators reported higher food costs than the prior year; 6% saw any decline.
• Food costs were up 34% compared with pre-pandemic levels, and labor up 39%.
• 68% of operators said tariffs contributed to higher food and beverage expenses.
• Among full-service operators, 90% raised prices, 63% sought alternative suppliers and 60% removed items from menus.

From Restaurant365's 2026 mid-year report, a survey of 420+ operators:

• 87% reported food cost increases in the first half of 2026.
• 78% expect food costs to keep rising through year-end.
• The share raising menu prices fell to 52%, from 66% at the start of 2026.

On the supply side, the NRA piece cites forecasts from Advanced Economic Solutions that U.S. cattle inventories are at multidecade lows, with beef prices expected to stay elevated through at least 2027. Forecasts can change, but the planning message is clear: do not wait for relief.

The levers, in order

Pull the cheapest, least visible levers first, and the guest-facing ones last.

1. Measure properly

You cannot fix what you cannot see. Know your actual food cost, your theoretical cost and the gap. See theoretical vs actual food cost and how to calculate food cost percentage.

2. Cut waste

Waste is paid-for food in the bin. Start with a two-week waste log and the plan in how to reduce food waste.

3. Check portions and recipes

Plates drifting heavier than the recipe is a quiet, common leak. Weigh a few plates a week and standardise. See standardized recipes and portion control.

4. Tighten purchasing

• Track price changes on your top items: how to track ingredient price changes.
• Compare suppliers on total cost: how to compare supplier prices.
• Order to par, not to habit.

5. Adjust the menu

Feature dishes that use stable-cost ingredients, build specials from use-first stock, and review item profitability. See menu engineering and daily specials from existing inventory.

6. Raise prices carefully

Often necessary, but surveys also show guests are price sensitive: the NRA piece quotes operators who say they cannot fully pass on costs without hurting traffic. Make targeted, modest increases on items where cost has risen most and guests are least sensitive, rather than across-the-board jumps. See how to price a menu item.

Talking to your team and guests

Staff who understand why the kitchen is tightening up are more likely to help. Share the numbers simply: where food cost is, where it needs to be, and what small actions help. With guests, be straightforward. A modest increase with consistent quality is easier to accept than shrinking portions without saying so.

An illustrative example

A restaurant with $1.2 million in annual food sales and a 31% food cost spends about $372,000 a year on food. One percentage point is about $12,000 a year. Trimming waste and portion drift by even a point or two, without touching prices, is worth $12,000 to $24,000. That is the scale of what these levers can mean, before any menu price change.

Common mistakes

• Raising prices first and leaving the leaks open.
• Cutting quality quietly. Guests notice.
• Waiting for month-end to see the damage.
• Treating every ingredient equally instead of focusing on top-spend items.
• Not involving the kitchen. See why chefs and owners disagree about food cost.

Where software can help

ChefMind AI's food cost tools show which dishes drift over your target percentage, helping you decide where to act first.

The short version

• Most operators report higher food costs, and fewer are raising prices.
• Measure, cut waste, fix portions, tighten purchasing, adjust the menu, then raise prices carefully.
• Involve the kitchen, and plan for ongoing pressure.