Kitchen operations
How to Forecast Prep From Past Sales
Past sales are the best clue to tomorrow's prep. Use them without overbuilding the method.
By ChefMind AI Team · · 6 min read
Prepping too much wastes product; too little costs sales. Past data makes the guess better. Numbers are illustrative.
Step 1: Collect sales by dish and day
Pull the number of each key dish sold on each day of the week for several weeks.
Step 2: Average by day of week
For example, if a pasta dish sold 38, 42, 40 and 44 on four recent Fridays, the average is 41.
Step 3: Convert to prep quantities
Use the recipe: 41 portions x 120 g sauce = about 4.9 kg of sauce, plus a safety margin.
Step 4: Adjust for known factors
Events, holidays, weather and promotions. Note them in the same sheet.
Step 5: Review after service
Compare prepped vs sold. See reducing overproduction.
Build it into the prep list
See prep lists and mise en place.
Keep it simple
Start with your five biggest dishes.
The short version
- Average sales by weekday.
- Convert to prep via recipes.
- Adjust and review.
Frequently asked questions
How much history do I need?
Several weeks of sales by day is a reasonable start. More helps if your business is seasonal.
What about events and weather?
Note them next to the sales numbers and adjust manually. Over time you will see patterns.
Keep reading
Kitchen operations
How to Reduce Overproduction in a Restaurant Kitchen
Overproduction is prepping for the best night you can remember instead of the night you are likely to have. Forecast, prep to par, and track what is left.
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A good prep list is par minus what you have, sequenced by cook time and assigned by name. It turns mise en place from memory into a routine.
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How to Set Par Levels in a Restaurant
Par is usage until the next delivery plus a safety cushion. Measure real usage, set pars around your delivery days, and review them when demand changes.
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